Can President Trump Defeat Globalism?

In his inaugural address, President Donald Trump left little doubt about whether he actually plans to pursue the strongly nationalist and protectionist agenda he campaigned on during the 2016 election cycle. But can he and other populist world leaders actually stop the seemingly ineluctable march of globalism – or merely slow it long enough for the disaffected to catch their breaths and adjust? And what will happen to global markets in the meantime?

In his latest paper, “The Biggest Question of Our Time – Part 1,” INTL FCStone Financial Inc.’s Global Macro Strategist Vincent Deluard looks for answers by examining other historical periods marked by populist uprisings and backlashes against growing globalization. Do lessons from the socialist and fascist movements of the 1930s apply? Or does the pre-WWI era – with its triumphant globalization, soaring inequalities, bloody terrorism, and proxy wars between great powers – provide more apt insights? Deluard argues it’s the latter, and discusses the market implications created by the mere possibility that the secular trend toward a more open and peaceful world order could reverse.

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About the Author

Vincent Deluard, CFA, is the newest member of the Market Intelligence team within the BD Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. A prolific market commentator who’s often quoted in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes Magazine, and Barron’s, Mr. Deluard earned the Euromoney Padraic Fallon Editorial Prize for his in-depth study of the investment opportunities offered by the European debt crisis in 2013. Prior to joining INTL FCStone Financial Inc., Vincent served as Europe Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group, where he authored weekly publications on European markets, and designed proprietary trading models that combined fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends.